Respawn Entertainment shed some light on Apex Legends loot box drop rates and players recording loot box opening videos followed. In a string of results that surprised no one, it was concluded that loot boxes are bad and should be avoided.
Respawn Entertainment offered some transparency on their website when it comes to Apex Legends loot boxes where they disclosed drop rates for various items in the game. The drop rates are based on colour coded rarity and it refers to the probability of at least one such item finding its way into your loot box.
Rare or better items have 100 per cent chance, meaning at least one rare item will be in any given loot box, but considering the vast amount of items that can be found, the actual chance of getting the item you desire is abysmal. The odds are even worse for Epic items which have 24.8 per cent chance of appearing and Legendary items have just 7.4 per cent.
There are 149 Legendary cosmetic items in Apex Legends and you have just 7.4 chance of getting one of them in a loot box. It translates to just 0.05 per cent chance to get the exact legendary item you want, or that you would need to open 200 loot boxes to maximise your chances of getting it. Note that we didn't say you will get the item for sure, just maximise your chances of getting it. This is either 200 levels worth of loot boxes or $200 spent to maybe get the cosmetic you desire.
According to a few loot box opening sprees and several on the matter, it usually takes close to opening 500 loot boxes before the Heirloom set pops up. If it doesn't, the mercy system will kick in and give you the Heirloom set upon opening 500th loot box. These abysmal drop rates earned the cosmetic item the "$500 knife" moniker.
This system is an equivalent of a hamster wheel at best and a tool to entice players which include many underage children to gambling at worst.